Professor Nick Bostrom at Oxford University says the universe and everything in it might be a simulation. He doesn’t think we should try to break free from the Matrix. He says we are likely not alone in the cosmos but is instead encompassed within a ‘Cosmic Host.’
Philosopher Nick Bostrom served as the founding Director of the Future of Humanity Institute from 2005 until its closure in April 2024. With a background in theoretical physics, computational neuroscience, logic, and artificial intelligence, along with philosophy. He is one of the most-cited philosophers in the world, and has been referred to as “the Swedish superbrain”.
Ever since Nick Bostrom suggested that the universe might be a simulation, sparking widespread debate about reality. Public figures like Elon Musk have added to the discussion, saying it’s likely our world is just a digital code. Recent studies have refined this idea, claiming there’s about a 50-50 chance we’re living in a simulation.
Some people believe the idea that we might live in a simulation because even well-known figures like Neil deGrasse Tyson have talked about it. However, not everyone agrees. Physicist Frank Wilczek says the universe is too complicated to be a simulation. He argues that creating all this complexity would take a lot of energy and time, and it doesn’t make sense for an intelligent creator to go to so much trouble. Another physicist, Sabine Hossenfelder, thinks the idea isn’t scientific. She says because we can’t test or prove it wrong, it’s not something worth spending time on.
In 2003, Nick Bostrom shocked people with his paper, “Are You Living in a Computer Simulation?” In it, he suggested that our reality might actually be a computer simulation. If you’ve watched “The Matrix,” this idea might sound familiar. In the movie, a hacker joins a group fighting against AI machines that have trapped humans in a fake reality (“the Matrix”) to keep them calm while they use their bodies for energy.
But Bostrom revealed in 2019 he hadn’t seen the 1999 movie when he wrote his paper. A strange coincidence, maybe? He thinks that writing the simulation argument came naturally from two things: his interest in observation selection theory, which he wrote about for his Ph.D., and his curiosity about how advancing technology might affect the future. (Source)
“So, when you have those two ideas,” he told Vulture, “the simulation argument is really just the next step.”
At first glance, Bostrom’s simulation argument isn’t as extreme as the futuristic world shown in The Matrix. It doesn’t involve things like oracles, martial arts, or slow-motion bullets — it just proposes that one of three statements about the future must be true:
-Humanity will very likely go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage.
-Humanity will reach the “posthuman” stage, but “is extremely unlikely” to run a significant number of simulations of its history.
-We are “almost certainly” living in a computer simulation of a “posthuman” civilization’s history right now.
Nick Bostrom’s Ideas on Posthumans
To understand the simulation argument, Bostrom gives us a few ideas to think about. He starts by talking about how a very advanced society, called “posthumans,” could create artificial human minds. Posthumans are super beings who have improved their mental and physical abilities beyond what we consider normal. They might live longer than us and have better control over their emotions, like not being afraid of things without reason.
It’s not hard to imagine that such an advanced society could build huge computer systems. Bostrom talks about how these computers could be used to create copies of human minds. He also considers how posthumans might choose to place these minds into a very realistic, artificial world. The important thing to remember is that these artificial minds should not know that they are inside a simulation.
When we think about how far humans have come with video games, it’s easy to imagine that one day we could have huge, Earth-sized computer simulations. When Pong was first released in the 1970s, it was just a simple game with a few pixels that looked like 2D table tennis. Now, fifty years later, we can wear virtual reality headsets to explore 3D worlds and interact with characters that feel real.
In the future, a posthuman civilization might create a much bigger, more detailed world. In this world, the characters could believe they are truly aware and independent. The environment could be so realistic that it would be impossible to tell it apart from our own world. (Source)
Bostrom believes that ‘ancestor simulations’ would be of particular interest to posthumans. This is like us using computer power to generate an accurate simulation of Ancient Rome or the Mongolian Empire. But in this situation, we are the ancestors being simulated. And somewhere out there, our technologically advanced descendants are watching how we go about everyday life.
“We can conclude that the computing power available to a posthuman civilization is sufficient to run a huge number of ancestor simulations even if it allocates only a minute fraction of its resources to that purpose” (Bostrom, 2003). So, what next? Well, if we accept that one day humans will reach a posthuman stage capable of running ancestor simulations, how do you know you aren’t living in such a simulation yourself?
If our reality is, well, real, it seems we still have a ways to go before we reach the “posthuman” stage (if we reach it — see Statement #1). But that hasn’t stopped everyone from Neil deGrasse Tyson to Elon Musk from mulling over Bostrom’s theory.
Some tech billionaires are even reportedly paying scientists to try to break us free of the simulation on the off-chance that we are already in it — and Bostrom thinks those folks need to slow their roll.
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“It’s kind of unwise to try to break out of the hypothetical simulation,” he told Vulture. “The chances of success are negligible. If it doesn’t work, it’s a waste of money, and if it does, it might be a calamity. It at least seems like the kind of thing that you would first want to think about for a while, whether it would be prudent to try to do that before embarking on it.”
Hear that, Silicon Valley? The Matrix isn’t going anywhere, so maybe take a beat before you try to force-feed humanity the red pill. (Source)
Human civilization is most likely not alone in the cosmos but is instead encompassed within a cosmic host, suggests Nick Bostrom. The“cosmic host” refers to an entity or set of entities whose preferences and concordats dominate at the largest scale, i.e. that of the cosmos.
For example, the cosmic host might conceivably consist of galactic-scale civilizations, simulators, superintelligences, and/or divine being or beings.
Bostrom discusses the idea that even if there is a higher power, simulator, or cosmic being (like God or an advanced civilization), they might not directly control or intervene in all parts of the universe.
Meaning: If intelligent life is rare, there could be parts of the universe no one from this “cosmic host” (advanced beings) can physically access. If we live in a simulated world, the simulator (who created it) can probably access every part of it. But, they might choose not to interfere if their goal is to let things play out naturally. (Source)
Bostrom concludes:
- This Cosmic host may support cosmic norms that we have moral (as well as prudential) reasons to respect.
- The host may want our civilization to build or develop into a good cosmic citizen: a superintelligence that respects cosmic norms, is modest, lawful, cooperative, and contributes positively to other host members and the order of the cosmopolis.
- The host may favor paths that lead to this outcome with high certainty, meaning a high probability that superintelligence is developed and becomes a good cosmic citizen.
- The cosmic normative structure might pertain not only to the ultimate outcome but also to the path taken to get there—including local outcomes along the way, as well as attitudes and modes of analysis.
